May 2, 2003
- Forward Market Curve Ltd (“FMCL”) is pleased
to announce its development of a ground breaking, all-broker
methodology for achieving robust and accurate price discovery
in forward commodity markets. FMCL’s first offering,
an Asia Oil module, is officially launched today, after several
months of development and system trials. The founding members
in FMCL include the top ten oil brokerage houses in Asia-related
swaps - Amerex Petroleum Singapore Pte Ltd, Aspen Oil (Broking)
Ltd., Ginga Petroleum (S) Pte Ltd, Intercapital Commodity
Swaps Pte Ltd, Prebon Energy (Singapore) Pte Ltd, PVM Oil
Associates Pte Ltd, Radix Energy (Singapore) Pte Ltd, Spectron
Energy (Asia) Pte Ltd, TFS Energy (S) Pte Ltd, and Starsupply
Tullett Energy Pte Ltd, plus consulting firm Oil Trade Associates.
Data for FMCL’s Asia Oil module will be collected from
participating member offices in Singapore, Tokyo and London.
FMCL is owned by the founders, putting responsibility
for the system in the hands of the informed and neutral brokering
community. The FMCL board chairmanship will rotate annually,
alphabetically among the brokerage houses. The first chairman,
Phil Jump of Amerex, notes that the establishment of the ForwardMarketCurve
is “significant....the first time that ten broking companies
anywhere could get together and agree on something,”
and “by establishing a single source for the info, we
save our customers a lot of time collating and assessing all
the different inputs from the different brokers.”
Industry participants, including traders, end
users, back office managers and senior management, have increasingly
voiced the need for robust, independent, neutral and accurate
forward market curve data. Such data is required for dependable
mark-to-market activities, as well as for stimulating market
confidence and liquidity on the trading side. Brokerage houses
have been providing their in-house data to clients, but no
single brokerage covers the entire market. Nor do any of the
brokers wish to bear the responsibility of having their proprietary
market curves emerge as pricing standards, particularly given
the challenges inherent in assessing sometimes-illiquid markets.
They recognize that even the most knowledgeable and neutral
view of the market is not infallible, and that the only safe
approach is averaging multiple informed, neutral views, in
a defined, methodical fashion.
FMCL's methodology provides robust, accurate
forward market curve data by averaging the expert assessments
of the region's leading brokers, the community with the most
knowledgeable, neutral views in the industry. Key features
of the methodology are as follows:
| • |
The most actively traded swaps grades and time periods
are assessed. |
| • |
The individual brokerage houses assess only the grades
they actively cover in the market. |
| • |
All broker inputs are made during the same evening window
and with the same time stamp. |
| • |
Broker inputs are submitted electronically. |
| • |
The inputs are averaged and displayed as daily forward
market curves for each grade. |
| • |
As an added safety measure, the high and low assessments
are discarded before averaging. |
| • |
As an internal cross-check, the brokers see all raw
data inputs on a non-attributed basis, along with the
related curve calculations. |
| • |
Consolidated, average midpoint prices are provided for
the market. |
| • |
The FMC board of directors monitors the performance
of each participating brokerage, to ensure the highest
standards. |
| • |
The FMC board of directors approves each brokerage house's
ongoing participation for each grade, based on their market
coverage and ongoing assessment performance. |
The ForwardMarketCurve methodology provides
the following key advantages:
While they have been, and will continue to
be fierce competitors in the street, the brokering community
sees significant benefits for the industry if they cooperate
in applying the knowledge derived from their unique vantage
points to generate curve data of a quality higher than any
other methodology could produce. They also know that industry
access to this powerful new tool will help grow the market.
While the brokers individually recognize the possible "downside"
that pooling their data could lessen the competitive edge
they might enjoy in certain market segments, they accept that
this is a "give and take" situation: While they
will each continue to have their strong areas, all participating
brokers will have an improved view of the overall market complex,
which will enable them to better serve their customers.
Oil Trade Associates will provide day-to-day
management services for FMCL. OTA's interest in the project
stems from experience developing and administering the Far
East Oil Price ("FEOP") Index since 1993. Whereas
FMC covers the forward swaps market, FEOP covers the current
period physical market, so the two systems are complimentary.
The methodologies are similar in that they are both panel
approaches, with the main difference being that FMC uses a
completely neutral, all-broker panel - something not possible
in Asia's physical oil markets.
FMC's immediate goal is to satisfy the industry's
need for the most robust, independent, neutral and accurate
forward market curve data that can be produced by any means.
The longer term goal is to explore expansion of the FMC system
in cooperation with brokers in other markets, including both
affiliates of the founding members as well as organizations
that do not participate in the Asian oil market.
ForwardMarketCurve data will be distributed by leading industry
news and data services. For more information, visit www.forwardmarketcurve.com,
or contact Bob Ellison or any of the other FMCL directors.
FMC Board of Directors: